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Germany's European Policy Caught Between Desire and Reality, by Josef Janning Germany considers the deepening of tbe EU (the realisation of EMU as outlined at Maastricht, the reinforcing of a Common Foreign and Security Policy and the third pillar of Maastricht, recourse to the Council's qualified majority vote) and its enlargement to Eastern Countries as heing equally important. The political scene, however, is dominated by the domestic problems, caused largely by unification, that are the major source of concern for a public opinion altogether hostile to EMU. There is nevertheless, within political circles, a wide consensus concerning European reforms, especially over the suggestions of the CDU's parliamentary group in the Schäuble-Lamers paper' which favours multi-speed integration around an inner core of member states based upon the Franco-German axis. This implies that Germany assume the leadership of Europe and that coopération with Paris becomes once again the engine of European integration.

Is France a Province of the European Union?, by Philippe Moreau Defarges As the IGC opens, France must face up to a historié turning-point in her European policy. That policy is challenged on three fronts: German reunification (ivhich has profoundly changed the relationship hetween Paris and Bonn), the decline of French power (making it much more difficult to combine an autonomous diplomacy whilst reinforcing a European identity), and lastly the crisis faced by the French economie and social model that requires the state and the elite to radically reexamine their role. Whatever difficulties France is faced with she is likely to stick to the policy she has followed since 1950: a close relationship with Germany, European orientated policies alongside an independent foreign and defense policy anchored in the Atlantic relationship and lastly intergovernmental concertation for all crucial decisions.

The British Approach to the 1996 IGC, by Helen Wallace The current British approach to the IGC reflects the persisting contradictions in British policy and the deep réservations of the current Conservative government and party about further extensions of EU authority. Its policy is thus cautious and the subject of continuing discussion at home. The prospect of an élection before the end of the IGC is a complication which has found the Labour opposition attempting to define a different approach but reluctant yet to take too definite a position on individual issues.

Italy and Europe, by Federico Rampini Since the beginning of the Community, Italian leaders have relied on Europe as a way to impose a process of modernisation which otherwise would not have had sufficient national support. However for the first time, with the arrival of Silvio Berlusconi in 1994, the country has become divided over the European question. Supporters of Maastricht believe that Italy would pay dearly if excluded from the single currency. But an increasing number of people defend 'an alternative policy' and daim that by leaving EMS, Italy has been better able to defend its national interests. The vitality of the Italian economy contradicts the monetary dogmas of the Bundesbank; but the Germanisation of Europe has some drawbacks for those who stay outside. This is why it is necessary for Italy to participate fully in the European debate in order to try and influence the priorities of the EU toward growth and employment.

What Future After a Decade of Radical Change? Spain and the European Union, by Luciano Berrocal et Nicole Stoffel Following a long period of isolation, Spain's membership of the EU was a historic step that paved the way for social and economie modernization, holstering growth, encouraging the development of infrastructures and transforming the Spanish way of life. Today, despite persistent economie difficulties (unemploy-ment, regional inequalities, etc.), Madrid has opted to participate in EMU and to work towards increased convergence with the other members of the EU. Moreover, Spain aims to promote a European vision that is primarily political and based on solidarity in order to ensure uninterrupted development and to defend a Mediterranean conception of European construction.

The Court of Justice: the Lynchpin of European Construction, by Pierre Servan-Schreiber The extent of the jurisdiction of the European Community Court of Justice makes it unique in the world. It has self-proclaimed constitutional competences, first and last degree jurisdiction on certain matters, acts as a court of appeals on others, and also gives preliminary rulings. It has been a prime mover in the integration process by developing a teleological interpretation of the Community/Union treaties and by confering upon community law a 'direct effect' in national jurisdictions, with supremacy over domestic laws. During the Nineties, it has played an increasingly important role, notably with respect to the disputes between member states and the Commission over their respective competences, thus becoming a sort of constitutional Supreme Court.

Whither UEM?, by Pierre Jacquet Many today doubt that the European Monetary Union can be launched by January, 1, 1999, the deadline set by the Maastricht Treaty. The prospects for meeting the fiscal convergence criteria look dim for most countries, including now France and Germany. Creating a monetary union, however, is a highly political décision, and political will, much more than strict respect of arbitrary statistical criteria, shall be the determining factor. The Maastricht treaty leaves important margins of interpretation of the criteria, that decision makers will be free to use when tinte cornes. The current debate is a reflection of a negotiating process that gives little indication about political will at the time of the ultimate decision. EMU can therefore still happen on time, and according to the Treaty provisions. The chances, however, will be greatly increased if decision makers and public opinions look at EMU in a pragmatic fashion, and not as a miracle cure for ail European ills: unemployment, inequalities of income among and within countries, lack of political decisiveness at a Gommunity level, etc.

European Defense at a Cross-roads: Bosnia and the IGC, by Nicole Gnesotto Compared to the effectiveness of the American intervention over the last six months in the Bosnian crisis, EU and WEU achievements look mediocre. As the IGC opens and negotiations dealing with the deepening of a Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and European defense take place, this relative European impotence cannot be ignored. Institutional questions and the reality of managing actual crises must be reconciled. Three issues must be tackled: first a reform of decision-making processes concerning security; second, British obstructions; and third, the future of the transatlantic relationship in the context of NATO.

The Question of the Third Pillar of the European Union Treaty, by Didier Bigo At present, European police cooperation is weak because governments disagree over the objectives of the third pillar of the EU treaty (justice and home affairs). Some governments emphasize free circulation, others border control. In fact, the consensus on the need for compensatory measures to deal with alleged security threats due to free circulation stems from a mistaken assimilation of growth in criminality with illegal immigration, development of mafias with border-opening. This belief seems to be the resuit of a struggle between the parties involved and their interests in the realm of security matters. In view of such a tendency and the discrimination that it risks provoking, the role of NGO's should be strengthened.

Possible Evolution of the European Union: Scenarios and Strategies to Break a Vicious Circle, by Wolfgang Wessels As the IGC opens, different options and strategies emerge as to the future of the European construction. They highlight the dilemmas between deepening versus enlarging the Union; integration versus intergovernmentalisation; building on a particular group of states (whether within or outside the Union) versus embarking all the member states. However any premature enlargement, any excessive deepening, or the construction of 'inner core' of states favourable to and/or capable of integrating (as in the case of the EMU), runs the risk of creating a Europe 'à la carte' with limited and functional cooperation outside the EU. The ideal solution would thus seem to be a combination of several of these options. The option of multi-speed Europe could hence serve as a means managing a gradual rapprochement of the CEECs.

Central and Eastern Europe and the European Union: Economie Aspects, by Eliane Mossé The prospects of the enlargement of the European Union to Central and East Europe countries (CEECs) provides food for thought not only within the Commission and between member countries but also for the countries that wish to join the Community. The article first analyses the pre-entry conditions for the countries having signed association agreements, as outlined in the Commission's 'white paper', and then the effect that enlargement might have on existing mem-bers. As far as the new candidates are concerned, a way of analysing the costs and advantages that membership will bring is suggested. Despite the fact that there will be a price to pay for expansion, ail the countries concerned — not only the CEECs — will reap economie and other benefits.

The European Union Faced with Enlargement, by Jean-Jacques Hallaert Enlargement bas becorne a major issue for the EU. However, whilst the EFTA countries who joined had similar economies to those of the Twelve, the same cannot be said of the new applicants, the CEECs, whose membership thus appears unlïkely over the short to medium term. Despite the fact that the driving-force behind enlargement is largely political, it will not take place if the economie cost is too high. This is why the EU aims to increase the similarities between the member countries and the candidates to membership and to use the very conception of the agreement as a means of reducing the cost of enlargement.

Space, Speed and Meaning at the Age of Globalization, by Zaki Laïdi Despite the fact that today's world is characterized by the interaction between the end of the Cold War and the acceleration of globalization, the two concepts are studied in isolation from each other. It is difficult to corne to terms with a post-Cold War world deprived offixed landmarks and the borderless universe of globalization. In other words, the moment that we are most in need of landmarks, the very notion disappears. This moment of 'world tirne' situated some-where between the end of World bipolarity and globalization can be analysed and understood by studying the end of the superpowers (and thus the notion of power) and the crisis of universality (the problem of sense in a global world).

The Serbian Orthodox Church, by Nicolas Miletitch After having cohabited with communism for 45 difficult years, the Serbian Orthodox Church has become a respected institution with political ambitions, openly supporting the Bosnian and Croatian Serbs and becoming increasingly opposed to President Milosevic. After a brief honeymoon period with the latter, the Church broke off relations, accusing him of betraying the Serbian cause. Since the beginning of the war in ex-Yugoslavia, the Church has increasingly considered the Vatican and Islam as enemies active in the 'satanisation' of the Serbs and the Orthodox Church. The Serbian church dreams of solidarity with other Orthodox nations in the face of the 'New World Order' imposed by the occidental powers.