Contenu du sommaire : L'ouverture internationale des pays en transition...

Towards a new Bretton : Woods : alternatives to structural adjustment. Since the beginning of the transition to the market in Central and Eastern Europe, it became obvious that the standard approach developed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank was flawed. This approach had been devised for the developing countries, many of which had had to implement structural adjustment programs since the beginning of the eighties. Moreover, it ignored some crucial needs of the countries in transition, in terms of restructuring and social policies. As regards the developing countries, the outcomes have been disastrous, under the triple D heading : deflation, devaluation and deregulation. In addition, these countries have experienced net negative transfers from the developed countries and the international financial institutions since the mid-eighties. The Fund and the Bank have based their action upon obsolete paradigms and have ignored development needs. There is an urgent need to move toward a new paradigm based upon three R : recovery, restructuring and redistribution. Such a paradigm may meet the needs of the developing countries and of the countries in transition as well.

A new Marshall Plan : is it needed ? possible ? feasible ? The question of a new Marshall Plan, culminating like the first one, in the establishment of a new world economic order, is one which repeatedly comes up for discussion since the collapse of the Soviet bloc. The countries of central and eastern Europe are powerfully motivated to effect their (re)entry into the world economy, but there are many obstacles, both East and West. The author reviews these, and then considers the actual need for such a plan, which implementation in the foreseeable future he views as very improbable.

Convertibility and international specialization in East European economies in transition. In the Central and East European economies in transition, internal convertibility for routine transactions, and the restructuring of trade, are mutually linked. The return to convertibility affords the opportunity to decide which forms of production are profitable, on the basis of world prices, and points the way for the future specialization of East European economies. The choice of a speedy convertibility and the refusal to create an East European payments union have speeded up the geographical restructuring of trade. In the short term, the specialization which the countries of central and eastern Europe inherited from the past conditions the choice of exchange rate level after the reintroduction of convertibility. Basing itself upon the example of the German monetary union, on the present structure of East European exports, on the prospects for convergence in respect of the States of the European Union, and on the clash between stabilization and restructuring, the article supports an undervaluation of the real rates of exchange at the beginning of the transitional period. In the longer term, as reforms are initiated and a new specialization develops, it would on the other hand be desirable for the actual exchange rate to appreciate, and to approach a level corresponding to the parity of purchasing power, thus allowing for some improvement in the living standards of the citizens of Eastern Europe.

Convertibility of the rouble, and choice of an exchange system. As from the 1st July 1992, the rouble became convertible for the settling of routine transactions among residents. However, internal economic conditions do not appear to have favoured the development, or even the continuance of this minimal system. With a reminder to the reader that convertibility is not only an objective in the reform of centrally planned economies, but also a means of powering the process of transition, the article then considers the part played by exchange policy in the consolidation of convertibility. This leads to a discussion of the precarious nature of convertibility in the present state of the floating rouble, and the causes thereof. There follows a discussion about adopting a fixed rouble in the context of Russia's financial relations, firstly with the West, and subsequently with the States of the former USSR. In the first instance, the analysis is concerned with the problem of intertemporal coherence, and the credibility of economic policy. The characteristics of the transitional economy certainly make it a good candidate for the adoption of a nominal fixed rate, but the fact remains that this theoretical argument is not wholly convincing, since fixing the rouble cannot substitute for macro-economic stabilization. Discussion about the choice of exchange system for the rouble with the new currencies of the States of the former USSR arises from the theory of the optimal monetary zone. The establishment of a rouble zone fulfils the traditional ideal criteria to a very limited extent only, since it is based uniquely on the economic integration inherited from socialist planning. Consequently, in this context also, it seems that there is no adequate theoretical justification for adopting fixed exchange rates.

The Treuhandanstalt and venture capital in the new Lander. In order to revitalize its privatization programme, and to encourage the creation of a network of SME/SMI in the new Lander, the Treuhandanstalt adopted an international privatization formula which had, up till then, been little recognized in Germany, the Management-Buy-Out. However, this arrangement which a priori offered undeniable advantages, did not alleviate the shortage of funds afflicting former State enterprises making the transition to a market economy. The financial instability of these enterprises privatized by MBO was such as to mortgage the success of the recovery, and thus, in due course, of the privatization programme. In an attempt to avoid this pitfall, the Treuhandanstalt, as from 1991, decided to incorporate venture capital in its original programme. Now that the phase of privatization, strictly speaking, is drawing to a close, the first balance sheet to be drawn up for this exercise turns out to be rather disappointing : the investment of venture capital in the new Lânder up till now has shown itself rather meagre. Examination of the half-tone results so far obtained certainly leads one to question the relevance of this privatization technique during the transitional phase. Mainly, it enables one to highlight certain recurrent factors which are specific to the German market, and which explain the low level of investment made by the venture capital companies : the dominance of the banking sector in the raising of funds, the powerful competition for investment from the old Lânder, as well as obstacles of a juridical and cultural nature.

Bulgaria, and the strategic approach of Western firms to internationalization. The opening of the economies of Eastern Europe represents a new field of competition for the economies and enterprises of the West, a source of uncertainty at the same time with prospects of apportunity and danger. A study of the tactics of Western firms in Bulgaria is particularly useful for showing up the shadowy areas left unclear by an approach based on attractiveness. Indeed, what are the factors motivating the firms who become involved in what is globally a fairly unattractive market ? The basic hypothesis is that internationalization involves a limiting dimension arising from the competitive postures and pressures which firms undergo on their home market. From this viewpoint, the intrisic attractiveness of a country would lie in the extent and degree of permanence and commitment, and not in the basic decision wether or not to show one's presence in the market in question. Thus, a weak attraction need not discourage an interest in Bulgaria, on the part of certain Western firms, but would fundamentally influence the kind of methods used for internationalizing the local production system. As for enterprises, it seems that Bulgaria largely attracts " followers" (large groups who are losing momentum on specific markets, or SMEs, not necessarily running at a loss, but relatively vulnerable and short of funds). At the same time, the number of active parties and opportunity schemes is considerable. The prime concern of these enterprises is to effect an entry into the market, and the process of internationalizing the Bulgarian economy seems, at the present stage, to be passing through the phase of trade rather than that of production.