Contenu du sommaire : L'élargissement à l'Est de l'Union européenne regards croisés

The European Union's Ostpolitik in the light of the Association Agreement with the Czech Republic. Despite the apparent generosity of the EU's association proposals (extensive political dialogue, asymmetrical liberalization of trade), Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) have often voiced their grievances with regard to the Union's Ostpolitik. This misunderstanding probably has arisen because the EU has not always sufficiently reckoned with the psychological impediments and sensitivity that still characterize relations between countries in this region. For instance, certain CEECs - considering themselves to be farther ahead in political and economic reforms - refuse to be treated like the others. This partly accounts for the Czech Republic's refusal to have a modified suspensory clause inserted in the Association Agreement that it had to renegotiate following the breakup of Czechoslovakia. This demand for differentiated treatment also explains why some members of the Visegrad group have reserves about extending their free-trade zone farther east. The EU's new approach to admitting CEECs suggests a solution to the dilemma it has encountered when defining its Ostpolitik. By recognizing that all these countries may eventually join, the EU has calmed those that did not want to see a new wall dividing Europe. But by subordinating a country's application for membership to an examination of its own accomplishments (and not that of the group of which it is a part), the EU makes it possible for the more advanced countries to hope for a faster pace of integration.

Polish agriculture and the question of European integration : Contras views. Given its productive potential and its specific structural characteristics, Poland will likely play an important role in the enlargement process of the European Union. On the basis of an analysis of official views in Brussels and Warsaw, questions are raised about the impact of political and social actors' tacit opinions and conceptions. Even though a post-communist coalition now heads the Polish government and an interventionist, protectionist policy has been adopted, a new political conception in favor of integration tends to prevail in the country. All the scenarios for integration, as foreseen by European or Polish experts, focus on assessing production potentials and the rhythm of price adjustments. But integration cannot be reduced to its economic and financial impact ; this question must also be seen in social and historical terms. Might Poland's structural heritage not thwart the convergence of agricultural policies ? Although there is a political willingness to adapt Polish farming to European requirements, the specificities of an agriculture mainly comprised of small family holdings may make it difficult for this country to accept the European agricultural model.

On the road to integration : a Hungarian point of view. The study deals with selected high-priority issues of Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU), following the decisions at the Madrid summit meeting. Special attention is devoted to the "integration maturity" of Central European countries. After reviewing the already achieved objectives in the political and economic areas, the author argues in favour of a comprehensive national strategy in order to get adequately prepared for full membership as soon as possible. In this context, special emphasis is laid on investment-based growth, budgetary and institutional reforms. Analysing the key areas of the preparation for, and future négociation on accession to the EU, the author highlights the development of trade relations, agricultural adjustment, issues of financial transfer, and the movements of manpower. In all cases, the article makes use of a differentiated approach, underlining the substantial differences among the individual candidate countries, and calling attention to the high risks of a "block approach and mentality". The process of Eastern enlargement is embedded into a prospective and global framework. The final conclusion is that Eastern enlargement has to be considered as a strategic task of all countries involved in order to sustain the European balance of power and to enhance Europe's global competitiveness. Finally, some remarks are made on Hungary's integration strategy, focusing on the possibility of gradual enlargement in geographic terms, and improved cooperation possibilities with CEFTA.

The prospects for integrating Central and Eastern European countries in the European Union : An analysis based on the specialization acquired by these economies in transition. Economically, the countries of central and eastern Europe are not ready to join the European Union at the existing or foreseeable level of integration. The complete liberalization of trade through a free-trade zone or customs union seems to be a somewhat easier objective to reach. The Single Market's rules will not be applicable without temporary dispensations for new members or else following a necessary adjustment and convergence of economic institutions. It is not possible to imagine Eastern European countries participating in the European Monetary Union. Integrating post-communist economies in the EU will be gradual and differentiated. What is here intended is to link the specialization acquired by these economies in transition to the desirable degree of integration in a "custom-made" European Union. Given the objective of integration, specialization is a prerequisite. On the basis of the structure of observed transactions, the gains of integration can be predicted by distinguishing the effects of the creation or diversion of trade resulting from integration.

Financial assistance to central and eastern Europe : the Phare Programme. The G24 assistance effort has been a significant attempt by the industrialised countries to help the transformation of the economies and societies of central and eastern Europe. However the lack of effective coordination between the 24 donors has meant that the impact of the whole effort on the transformation process has only been marginal. The. European Union's assistance has consisted of grants, balance-of-payments loans and structural loans from the European Investment Bank. The most visible element has been the Phare Programme, which has committed around ECU 6,5 billion over the last six years. Whereas other donors are running down their assistance programmes to the region because the first stage of the transformation process is well advanced, the Union's assistance is growing as it prepares to admit the associated countries to membership. An assessment of the Phare Programme has not been completed yet by the European Commission. Although many initiatives have been started in the region by Phare, a provisional assessment suggests that the programme could certainly have been run more efficiently. Many of the problems stem from the multi-national nature of the programme and the desire of the Union's financial control authorities to control expenditure closely. More recently political control has been somewhat reinforced, which again will slow Programme implementation. With accession only a few years away for the most advanced associated countries, it would seem opportune to begin the process of turning Phare into a real pre-accession structural fund. This makes sense from a consideration of the needs of the associated countries and from the point of view of training these countries' administrations to deal with structural funds. While such a proposal will meet opposition from interested parties within and outside the Commission, it would provide more effective assistance at lower administrative cost and would be an important step on the road to enlargement.

European integration and economic development. The principle of enlarging the European Union (EU) to the associated countries of eastern and central Europe is now admitted by all. Before the effort is made to foresee the economic evolution of the countries applying for membership and thus deducing the consequences for the EU' s economy, the achievements already made during the first five years of economic reform in eastern and central Europe are assessed ; and the conclusions, drawn. This enlargement - not to be identified with economic concerns alone - cannot be separated from the question of the continent's security and stability. Enlargement is not just a response adapted to the risks of eventual, economic and political, instability in applicant countries ; it is also, for the EU, a framework for the economic growth, progress and harmonization that shields from economic instability. At present, the key question is : can the EU adapt its institutions to this new situation ?

Denis Besnainou.- Using purchasing power parities in East-West comparisons. Purchasing power parities frequently serve in East- West comparisons. This article provides an account of the relevant sources and methods of calculation. It also describes the interpretation that can be drawn from this concept and the possibility of using these parities for prospective purposes.

Germany's ideal Europe. Germany's ideal Europe, and the place of Central and Eastern Europe in it, is being analysed in looking at five of its central elements : (a) the economic Union with its tension between order and liberalism, (b) the political union, with its tension between Bundesstaat or Staatenbund, (c) the EU' s relation to Central and Eastern Europe, with the perspective of Enlargement and Mittellage for Germany, (d) economic growth and aid from EU to the CEECs as the one principal field of action, and (e) Security as the second one, in this important relationship. These five elements are passed under review in three steps : 1) in the form they took in the strongly pro-federalist- and quick- enlargement-demands of politicians and academics for a revision of the Maastricht treaty from 1992 to 1994, 2) in taking into account the contradictions and resistances to these demands, resulting out of the increasing German debate, and out of the growing insight into the difficult situation as it presents itself, 3) in the form they take in the German propositions for the ongoing Intergouvemmental Conference and the upcoming entry negotiations for the CEECs, so far as they can already be perceived. This review shows a passage from an unrealist and idealist position to a much more modest, disillusioned and realist German idea of the Europe it will have to cooperate with for the coming years.

Central Europe and European Unions : The double differentiation. The commitment to enlarge the EU by taking in a second group of 15 member- states from central, eastern and southern Europe is sometimes far ahead of its actual, rapid and widespread implementation at this turn of a new century. True, everything seems to fit into the agreed-upon calendar. And most political leaders present this doubling of the number of member-states as something to be taken for granted - to the point that any doubts about the feasibility of such a tremendous geopolitical transformation on the continent seem unwarranted. But some factors call for caution : the real economic and (especially) political situation in certain applicant countries ; and the serious questions that such changes raise about the nature and operation of the EU itself. We should not make a mistake about the sources of quite real difficulties. In each case, we must identify the options that depend on the EU and the variables that depend on the states applying for membership. Sorting out the various factors is a prerequisite for analyzing the system of complex interaction that the Europe for tomorrow already forms today.