Contenu du sommaire

A violent Peace, by Rémy Leveau and Dominique Moïsi Since the troubles flared up again in October 2000, the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians has gone from one setback to another. In spite of Clinton's efforts and all the energy deployed at Camp David last July to formulate an acceptable compromise for the two parties, sentiments at street level and public opinion have finally triumphed over the will to understand and the efforts to negotiate, courageously undertaken by the Israeli and Palestinian ruling classes. And while in Autumn of 2000 a peaceful resolution of the conflict seemed nearer than at any other time, the only short term prospect today is for a slowing down of the escalation of the troubles.

Thoughts on the Presidential Election in the United States, by Thomas E. Mann Why did not Al Gore run away with the American presidential election? Since 1992 the United States have experienced a period of unprecedented economie prosperity; the outgoing President, Bill Clinton, has continued to enjoy favourable poils, in spite of the Monica Lewinsky affair; and ail the electoral forecasting models indicated unequivocally a victory to the Vice President. Nevertheless, the election resulted in a virtual tie, George W. Bush owing his victory to a few hundred ballot papers in Florida. Time for explanations...

China 1998-2000: The Latest Series of Reforms is in Limbo, by David Zweig When he became prime minister in the Spring of 1998, Zhu Rongji announced his reforming intentions: a reform of state enterprises, privatisation of state housing, legitimisation and enlargement of the private sector, an intention to join the World Trade Organisation, a halving of the civil service, fight against corruption, creation of a System of unemployment insurance and pensions etc. Two-and-a-half years later, in a favourable global climate, a number of thèse reforms have made significant progress even if others remain thwarted by the meandering of the political organisation and Chinese bureaucracy. The future of these reforms will depend, in any case, on the political longevity of those who rule over the destiny of the Celestial Empire.

Army and Power in China: Towards a New Framework, by You Ji Since 1949, relations between the People's Liberation Army and the Chinese Communist Party have considerably evolved. Formerly guardian of the révolution, the army is now the guardian of the national security of the country, and is now stating emphatically the case for a new need: that of professionalism. Parallel to this process, the army is no longer placed under the control of the strongmen of the regime, be they Mao or Deng Xiaopong, the latter having accorded to the civil power an institutional authority which Jiang Zemin, his successor, has made full use of. But the Taiwan question would seem to divide the leaders of the army and those of the party. For if the former do not hesitate to conceptualise a resort to military action, the latter would favour the preservation of the status quo. Furthermore, it is not certain that, in the event of a serious crisis, the party would not be forced to align itself with the military position so as not to risk being accused of betraying the national interest.

Politics and Rhetoric in Sino-Taiwanese Relations, by Szu-yin Ho The election to the Presidency of Taiwan of Chen Shui-bian in March 2000, marks a turning point in relations between Taipei and Peking. Dominated over a long period by the nationalism of the Kuomintang on one side, and by frequent démonstrations of force on the other, the Sino-Taiwanese imbroglio reveals two faces: a sometimes inflammatory, but always complex, rhetoric suggests political uncertainty over the future of the Island, whereas economie reality would seem to play in favour of a peaceful coexistence of the regimes on either side of the Strait. It may be possible to find the resolution of the independence-reunification dilemma, a major source of instability in the North East Asia region, through market forces and globalisation.

China-Taiwan : The Influence of Economie Exchanges, by Philippe Chevalérias Since the mid-80s, the economie exchanges across the Taiwan Strait have increa-sed dramatically, making Taiwan's economy more and more dépendent upon the Chinese Mainland. However, Taipei has not given up anything to Peking from the political viewpoint. In that context, can the Taiwanese government follow a strategy aiming to separate the économie question from the political one?

Is an Asian Peace Possible Without a Régional Framework? by François Godement Will the 21st century witness the triumph of peace and prosperity in Asia or is there a risk that the region will descend into chaos and war? Everything depends on the way in which three emergent factors, pertinent to regional stability, evolve : the first is the opening up to the market economy, which has yet to happen in Vietnam and North Korea, and whose continuation in China is leading to an interdependence with other states in the region; the second is the process of modernisation of political institutions, initiated on the Korean Peninsula and also in Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan and even in China, and which, if continued, could also tip the balance in favour of peace. The third is the slow conversion, observed in the entire region, to the idea of regional economic co-operation based on formal agreement. Still, there is nothing to suggest that these three factors for peace will be powerful enough to overcome the risks of conflict, which weigh heavy upon Asia, such as the question of the Strait of Formosa and nuclear rivalry among India, Pakistan and China .

A Not So Grand Strategy: United States Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia Since 1991, by Fiona Hill United States policy toward the Caucasus and Central Asia over the last ten years has been marked by a distinct lack of direction. The US stumbled into the region with only the vaguest idea of its geography, history, or political complexities. It has since failed to transform improvised responses to regional challenges into a coherent strategy. In looking forward to a new Administration, the US government must finally decide what it wants to do in the Caspian region and set clear strategie priorities.

Colombia: Between War and Peace, by Éric Lair For many years now, Colombia has been the stage for an internai conflict which has made it one of the most violent countries in the world. While the peace talks instigated by the Government of President Andrés Pastrana are deadlocked, and the country is suffering from a deep economie crisis, ail the armed protagonists are preparing for an impending intensification of the war. If this scenario were to eventuate, Colombian society would move into a new era of collective violence with uncertain boundaries.

Mexico in 2000: the Rout of the Ruling Party, by José Antonio Crespo The 2000 presidential election in Mexico was expected to be the closest in Mexican history. The conceivability of the scénario involving the defeat of the PRI was very real and the probability of this outcome was very high. The PRI might have won however, but only by a very narrow margin, which could have had grave consequences since the legitimacy and credibility of such a close victory, with revelations of voting irregularities, would have been lacking. This article reflects on the electoral trends and causes of the defeat of a party that ruled its country for seven decades, the longest such hegemony in the world.

The Russian Orthodox Church: to be Taken Seriously as a Political Factor?, by Irène Semenoff-Tian-Chansky The Orthodox Church, which has reassumed its position of importance in Russian society, has not managed to define an official political doctrine through the parties. Its members have divergent opinions; even if it is possible to identify a certain number of ideas that are often asserted in Orthodox circles. The Church as an institution plays a political part by collaborating with the State and acting as an arbiter of the parties. In practical terms its involvement is characterised by the defence of its own interests, the inducement of a particular way forward for Russia, the establishment of special relations with the Orthodox world, and a look towards the East rather than the West.

The French-speaking World: a Plea for a Franco-German Reflection and Response, by Ingo Kolboom At its last summit, in September 1999 at Moncton, Canada, the International Francophone Organisation (IFO) did not attain the objectives set out two years previously at Hanoi. The francophone countries have been unable to take up the challenge laid down by the Anglo-American cultural hegemony; and efforts to promote amongst its members the ideals of democracy and human rights have not always been made with necessary vigour. Nevertheless, the francophone world remains one of the best ways of protecting the variety of cultures and encouraging the emergence of a "multipolar cultural heritage". It remains to be seen whether or not the admission of non-francophone countries would cause the Organisation to withdraw in on itself. In this respect the francophone sphere of influence has everything to gain by integrating into its framework the Franco-German dynamic of cooperation, which has already demonstrated its effectiveness in Europe, in order to offer a credible alternative to the present globalisation process.

French, Francophonie (the French-speaking World) and the Others, by Jack Batho The absence of a clear definition which would attribute to Francophonie more precise boundaries, and therefore less ambiguous usage, constitutes without doubt one of the principle reasons for its quasi-invisibility on the international scene. If there is a specifie dynamic to southern Francophonie, principally in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, it is nevertheless in the multilingual situation of Europe that French and Francophonie are playing out their destinies. It would seem obvious that only an alliance with the other languages of the continent, in particular German, can protect the aspirations or a community whose long term survival is inconceivable in the face of the decline of the language that unites it.

nd Nuclear Weapons, by Michael Quinlan the end of the Cold War many voices, including weighty ones, have for the Worldwide abolition of nuclear weapons. Seen as a policy pro- rather than a proper long-term aspiration, however, this demand ies with inescapable current realities, and will remain beyond reach until sr political changes have greatly altered the global political environment. mwhile, there remains a useful international agenda to reduce further the ts and risks of nuclear weapons, especially in respect of proliferation. ategies against proliferation merit wider and more systematic considera- n of options and synergies.