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The Elections of 12 December in the Federation of Russia and the « Zirinovsky Phenomenon », by Alexei Salmine Alexei Salmine presents an analysis of the « Zirinovsky phenomenon » which characterized the parliamentary elections of 12th December 1993 in Russia. The complicated voting procedure, partly proportional representation and partly simple majority, chosen in order to give the advantage once and for ail to the liberal pro-reformists, benefited instead Vladimir Zirinovsky, the leader of the Liberal Democrat Party. The libéral pro-reformists, who hoped to carry the day led a disorganized campaign that, through lack of experience, was extremely boring. Moreover, the president Boris Yeltsin, who pronounced himself in favour of the Constitution for which the Russians voted at the same time by referendum, did not want to support directly his partisans. Using public opinion surveys, Alexei Salmineto analyses the electoral support of Zirinovsky. The people who voted for him tended to be middle-aged men with secondary school education whilst the typical reformist voter was younger and more highly educated. Nevertheless the Zirinovsky voter was not more affected by the fall in the standard of living than other voters.

After Yeltsin ?, by Jerzy Reinhardt In order to understand the électoral success of Vladimir Zirinovsky, the underlying structure of Russian politics must be examined. Whilst seemingly disorderea, this structure mayy since the nineteenth century, be divided up into four major blocs forming two coalitions. The first is comprised of Westernizers and populists, the second of « conservatives », or so-called statist groups (gosudarstvenniki) and nationalists. The first two groups, which represent between 65 and 70 % of the Russian electorate, brought Yeltsin to power. As for the other two groups, the Russian nationalists suffered from the lack of a credible representative and, more importantly, the so-called statist groups were hampered by the natural identification of their elite with the previous nomenklatura and the Soviet System which were rejected on a large scale by the population. The exceptional context created by the exit of communism therefore made impossible an alliance between the supporters of the Russian orthodox nation and those of the imperial Soviet state without a hypothetical passage into the realm of irrationality. It is exactly this option that Vladimir Zironovsky represents. His maximum electoral potential may be estimated as being between 30 and 35 %. The chances of such a minority coming to power increase with the disorganisation of the government and the state.

The Détours of Democracy in Russia, by Jean-François Bouthors Russia began its third year of post-Soviet existence with a new constitution, adopted by referendum the 12th December 1993. However, the legislative elections saw the defeat of the pro-reform parties to the advantage of the ultra-nationalists, communists and their allies. As a resuit Boris Yeltsin, whose mandate runs until 1996, finds himself in a difficult position, whilst the prime minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, former director of the Soviet national gas monopoly, seems to be the key-man to the situation in Moscow. The head of the government, with the president, aims to control inflation, give a neiv impetus to production and conduct a social policy whilst maintaining budgetary stringency. These objectives are contradictory but they correspond to the desires of the population (as shown by the results of the elections) and, at the same time, the specifie difficultes experienced by Russia coming out of Communism. The future of democratie Russia depends on this difficult wager and the collaboration between Boris Yeltsin and Viktor Chernomyrdin who, whilst allies today, could become rivals in the future.

Russia and the West, by Robert D. Blackwill The author discusses two broad areas that are souring relations between Russia and the West. The Russian domestic landscape is characterized by four negative trends that together will infect Russian external policies : worsening economie conditions, the end of democratie breakthroughs, the growth of crime and corruption, and increasing anti-Western sentiment. The second area encompasses differences arising from the conflicting national interests and foreign policies of Russia and the West, particularly regarding the future of Ukraine, the Baltic States, and Eastern Europe. While these internal factors and conflicting interests do not bode well for partnership between Russia and the industrialized democracies, neither will they produce another Cold War. Rather, the West should engage more actively with Russia to manage this increasingly troubled relationship.

The Military Reform in Russia, by Andreï Tcherviakov The huge military build-up of the Soviet regime was hiding a true strategie vacuum. The present Russian defence officiais have to rebuild completely a doctrine and a military System. This review has to involve many fields : the status of the Russian nuclear arsenal, the strategie relations with the West, the present disastrous state of the Russian army, the relationship between conscripts and professionals and more generally the new relationship between the army and the Russian society. The debate is y et to corne — the last military doctrine only being a first step — and it depends mainly on the redefinition of Russian foreign policy.

The Behaviour of Russian Enterprises During the Transition, by Christian de Boissieu, Daniel Cohen and Gaël de Pontbriand The behaviour of Russian enterprises during the transition to a market economy is studied in this article by Christian de Boissieu, Daniel Cohen and Gaël de Pontbriand. The three French economists, working from surveys conducted in 160 enterprises, point out the relative flexibility of these enter-prises, a flexibility which allows them to adapt to Systems of production and distribution very différent from those with which they were previously familiar and this during a deep recession. Their main worry is to survive in the new monetary and financial framework and adjust to procedures of payments which reflect an important scarcity in means, high inflation and reduced confidence. Their distrust of the state is ever greater given that rapidly-passed state legislation lacks real cohesion and that the state reveals itself incapable of enforcing respect for its laws and décisions. In the author's opinion, it is important to restore confidence and effectively combat inflation.

Areas and Transition in Russia, by Anita Tiraspolsky Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, world worries are focused on Russia. Will it be affected by the same fate and split into several states ? Anita Tiraspolsky analyses the process of the regional economie differentiation. The author assumes that Russian areas will unequally suffer during the transition, because of the great differences in their features and natural aptitudes inherited front the Soviet System. The easing of restrictions on prices has already disrupted the traditional place of the region in the economy of the country and has let some of them, for example Oural or Siberia, hope for a wider self-government. The shock produced, linked to one caused by the disorganization of the partnerships between regions and by the weakness of federal State, induces areas to survive by themselves. Because of their awareness of belonging to a whole unity, they are waiting for a strong central power capable of respecting their desire for self-government.

Today's Russia : A Perspective on Foreign Investment, by Jeffrey M. Hertzfeld The future of foreign investment in Russia is tied to the continuation of the process of economie reform. This process is inevitably slow and painful, marked by ongoing political, economie, social and legal instability. But, there is no other way. Russia has crossed the Rubicon. Investing in Russia only makes sense as a long-term strategy aimed at acquiring market shares as the Russian market emerges. But, until Russia acts to encourage investment by offering incentives such as tax stabilization, protection from frequent adverse changes in the law, and non-discriminatory treatment for foreign investors, substantial investment will be slow in coming. Nevertheless, many western companies are staking out positions in this new market and managing to survive and grow. This trend will accelerate as and when western financial institutions make funds available to share the risk.

Economie Repercussions of German Unification and Their Consequenses for Korea, by Ha-Cheon Yeon South Korea has not failed to follow carefully the steps of German reconciliation and the unification process. It has tried to find inspiration from it, without making the same mistakes. Seoul should be ail the more watchful since the problems of the unification between the two Koreas wiïl be even more insurmountable than in Germany. However North Korea aspires to lift the iron curtain wbicb divides the penninsula, at the same time, it fears too-rapid development, being overwhelmed with economie and social troubles and, at last, a sacrifice of the material well-being and the économie competitiveness of its citizens and firms. So, the Seoul watchword is graduai reconciliation during a decade, walking toward a progressive unification, resulting from a slow and controlled process.

The « Normalization » of German Foreign Policy, by Philip H. Gordon The national interests of the Federal Republic of Germany bave been transformed by the manifold geopolitical changes of the past several years. This transformation raises the possibility of wbat is sometimes called the « normalization » of German policy —the attenuation of the particular restrictions that have influenced and constrained Germany's international actions since, and because of, World War II. Normalization is a controversial topic both in Germany and abroad, and some fear it would mean a return to the past. But it is difficult to argue that the Federal Republic, after more than four decades of responsible behavior in Europe, should not be allowed to pursue its interests in the same way as other states. Efforts by Germany's allies to prevent it from assuming a say and role in international affairs proportionate to its weight and interests not only display unwarranted mistrust of a close ally, but also seem bound to fail.

The European Union : From Maastricht to Karlsruhe and Beyond, by Klaus Reeh About a year ago, the Federal Constitutional Court finally paved the way for the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty. Ever since the Court's judgement fell into oblivion. Yet it deserves better, because it clarifies ambiguities, imposes constraints, affirmes good Community practices, reinforces the protection of civil rights, enlarging them as far as democracy is concernea, and, most significantly, it protects the role of parliaments in the democratie evolution of the European Union. Moreover, the Court sketches a strategy to manage the most difficult problem of the Union which is balancing the need for the Union to become more democratie with the will of Member States to maintain their national sovereignty. For this purpose, the Court proposes constitutional openness accompaniea by political experiments (including a single currency), but retaining only those with good results. If this « strategy of the judges » was to be followed, the European Union might well be able to overcome its current crisis.

Franco-German Cooperation Faced with New Challenges, by Rudolf Scharping The development of Western Europe and, on a larger scale, peace in Europe dépend upon the Franco-German partnership, the reconciliation of the two countries who have been rivals up until the middle of this century, their integration into the Community as a whole and the cooperation between the two. Nevertheless, events in Eastern Europe since 1989 require a more daring Franco-German approach to the new European, or even global situation marked by the inevitable rapprochement between the two halves of our continent and the increasingly urgent problems faced by the southern hemisphere of our planet.