Contenu du sommaire

Towards a "Military Democracy?", by Mariam Abou Zahab Apart from breaking its isolation, Pakistan has not gained much from its unreserved support to the United States. The external debt has not been written off, and the economy shows few signs of recovery. Jihadi and sectarian movements have been banned, but many militants are still active and the law and order situation has not improved. In order to legitimise his stay in power for another five years, President Musharraf has announced a referendum which will be followed by general elections in October 2002, while Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharii are still in exile. The military establishment wants to retain its hold on power, and everything seems to be in place for a repetition of history.

Regional Challenges around Pakistan, by Isabelle Cordonnier There are several regional challenges around Pakistan closely dépendent on domestic conditions. Through Pakistan's bilateral relations with two of its main neighbours - India and Afghanistan -, two major challenges appear: the nature or regional power in Southern Asia, and the settlement of territorial conflicts inherited from colonisation. The stability of the Indo-Pakistani relation is a critical challenge, not only at a regional level, but also at a global one. Because both countries have an open nuclear capacity and ballistic arsenals reaching the other's territory, South Asia emerges as the region where the nuclear and ballistic capacity to prevent the escalation of conflicts to the extremes is actually tested.

Nationalism and Governance: Indian Government's Dilemma, by Jean-Luc Racine Elected to power in 1998, re-elected in 1999, the Bharatiya Janata Party — the political arm of the Hindu nationalist family— has preached for a "résurgent India," rich of its identity, its newly acquired nuclear status, its intellectual and economie potential. At mid-term of its mandate, the BJP is however losing ground, for the electorate gives more emphasis to governance issues than to the troublesome agenda of the Sangh Parivar. The party will have therefore to choose between the ideologues and the pragmatists, particularly in the present context of coalition politics, resulting rrom the development of caste-based parties and regional leaders-based political formations. The old Congress Party, slowly recovering from décline, faces the same challenge from smaller forces, which express, under a new garb, the long Indian quest for unity in diversity.

India's Strategic Game: A Paradigm Shift?, by Waheguru PAL SINGH SIDHU India's strategie plan, which seeks to create a multipolar world with New Delhi as one of tne autonomous decision-making poles, evolved in the after-math of the Cold War. Consequently, India sought to break away from the Pakistan-centric posture and to play a greater role both regionally and globally, albeit based on its newly demonstrated nuclear weapon capability rather than the traditional Nehruvian policy of non-alignment. After 11 September 2001 the preoccupation of the US and its allies with global terrorism and their partnership with Pakistan limited India's regional autonomy of action and might delay the emergence of multipolarity. However, India has got greater support for its own on-going war against terrorism and has also enlarged its engagement with the US and its allies. Ironically, it has not been able to break out of the hyphenated relationship with Pakistan.

The Transatlantic Relationship and the "Long" War on Terrorism, by Frédéric Bozo The September 11 attacks have, further to their immediate impact, acted as a pointer to and a catalyst for the long-term trends relating to the history of NATO. Prior to their occurrence, in effect, there was a paradoxical situation. On the one hand, ten years after the fall of the Soviet Union, NATO seemed to have been reworked to last: its role as guarantor of European security had been reaffirmed, its first round of enlargement had been a success, and American leadership had been reinforced. On the other hand, the Kosovo crisis had raised once again the prospect of a Euro-American "decoupling", in terms of values and interests of the various allies. As a result, a new, major transatlantic debate had been launched even before the attacks. It encompassed the redefinition of threats, management of a number of conflicts, particularly in the Near East, and on the internal balances of the Alliance ― the relaunching of ESDP emerging to balance, after Saint-Malo and George W. Bush's election, the reassertion of American unilateralism. But following September 11, these issues lost their relevance. Now, three new scenarios must be examined: a recasting of NATO for the fight against terrorism, a transatlantic divorce in the face of this undertaking, and a new Euro-US strategic partnership in a reformed Alliance.

NATO's Enlargement: Past, Present and Future, by Ronald D. Asmus During the 1990s, NATO's enlargement became a constant of American foreign policy. It was intended to do for the Eastern half of Europe what the Alliance has done for the Western half: to deploy a security umbrella for the reinforcement of democracy and the facilitation of intégration. These twin aims gave rise to some of the most profound changes in American thinking on Europe and NATO: while maintaining their engagement in NATO for collective security, the United States are encouraging it to adopt a new strategie concept which makes the defense of western values and interests a priority, even beyond the immediate frontiers of the West. The strength of this vision is confirmed by the Senate's ratification of the Alliance's enlargement, in 1998. But the September 11 attacks change the state of play: by reinforcing the U.S.' interest in the consolidation of peace in Europe, by reinvigorating the executive's role in the conduct of foreign policy and by eliminating the risk of a confrontation with Russia, the enlargement issue has been over-taken by questions relating to the role and the organisation of the Alliance in the face of new threats.

NATO's Enlargement from Moscow's Point of View, by Dmitri Trenin By choosing to support the United States in the war on terrorism following the September 11 attacks, President Putin has changed the state of play concerning the future of NATO. Without a doubt, the first round of enlargement, which included Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, had a negative impact on relations between Russia and the West, paving the way for a profound disagreement, approaching confrontation, over the Kosovo crisis. But in either case, Moscow's view did not prevail. Drawing the lessons from these setbacks, Russia, without favouring any continuation of NATO's enlargement, has concentrated its efforts on the candidacies of the three Baltic states. Putin wanted to avoid this issue having any effect on his efforts to bring Russia closer to the West, compensating the prospect of NATO advancing toward the Baltic by political success in Ukraine, Moldovia and other countries in the CIS. But, in the new strategie context opened by September 11, making Russia a true ally of the West, by integrating it in the post-cold war security structures, could well be what is at stake.

Doha Round Tasks on Two Tracks - and a Third, by Hugh Corbet Following the "the Seattle fiasco", the World Trade Organisation has started to get back on course with the launch, in Doha last November, of a new round of multilateral trade negotiations on two tracks. The "market access" track is addressing the liberalisation of trade in agricultural products, services and industrial products. But progress depends on the "preparatory studies" track, considering the modalities for extending the WTO System to new areas, especially investment and competition - major goals of the European Union and Japan. Those modalities are to be settled at the WTO ministerial conference in Mexico next year, making it every bit as crucial as the Doha ministerial was last year, with much more required before then. First, more has to be done on an unspoken "institutional reform" track and, second, the "majors" have to raise their sites to inspire the political commitment necessary to the success of the negotiations.

Latin America between the United States and the European Union, by Jean-Pierre Derisbourg Still very divided, but benefiting from the progressive return to démocratie rules, Latin-American governments are trying to group together to address economie globalisation. The Southern Common Market (Mercosur) seems to be the most promising of these sub-regional groupings, because it intends a customs union and political cooperation inspired by the European model. The European Union has expressed its support and proposed an economie and political partnership. A preferred partner of Latin American countries, Europe, intends to act as a great power, at least in the economie sense, in the region. On his side, George W. Bush has relaunched the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), but Congress remains divided on the subject, parti-cularly because of Mexico's emergence thanks to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). And then the new round of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) launched at Doha could muddy the waters. In any case, the rivalry between the United States and the European Union will be ever-present in the coming years.

Beyond the Financial and Institutional Argentine Crisis, by Renée Fregosi The crisis Argentina is experiencing today can be attributed more to a political than to an economical cause. Certainly the vicious circle between debt and current recession has been fuelling this deep crisis. But Argentina's debt represents only 52 % of its GDP, which is by no means catastrophic for such a country, and Argentina disposes of quite a big productive potential. The initiative to bring Argentina out of this dilemma must primarily corne from the political class, which is the heir of a long state-centred and "clientelistic" past where the Peronism occupies key positions. Some courageous politicians could therefore design ambitious new goals, on the basis of an unprecedented social mobilisation. But an ambitious project is today necessary, with three elements: a reform of the state and its fiscal affairs, a "neo-keyne-sian" boost of investment and consumption, and an acceleration of the régional integration process through the Mercosur.

European Defense and Democratie Control: A Task for the Convention on the Future of Europe, by Michael Hilger The Assembly of WEU, the national parliaments of WEU and EU member states and the European Parliament have tried so far without success to remedy what one could call the "parliamentary déficit" of the new European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP): it has arisen because the EU has set up politico-military crisis-management structures under the ESDP with a view to deploying forces for the so-called Petersberg tasks, which may include combat opérations to restore peace. National parliaments, which have their constitutional responsibilities and must scrutinise their governments, have no means of acquiring information first-hand at EU level. The décision to deploy troops to crisis areas and the means to finance such missions are voted in national parliaments. Yet there is no interparliamentary body within the EU to supervise intergovernmental coopération. At the same time, the EU Treaty does not give the European Parliament the necessary competence for security and defence questions and member states remain reluctant to transfer sovereignty in that area. That is why the Convention on the future of Europe should give national parliaments collective representation at EU level by taking the interparliamentary model as a basis.

France at a Turning Point, by Jean Dufourcq Rediscovering the strategie advantages of its traditional pivotal position, France is at a decisive juncture: the convergence between a still preserved uniqueness and a European commitment which had become more and more demanding. This dilemma is the strategie reincarnation of an old geopolitical position that placed France at the junction of Europe's major Unes and from which it has always taken advantage. From now on, questions for France's leaders are: should a choice be made for a new framework, if yes, what choice to make -and how to choose?