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Post-Oslo: Lost Peace or Impending War?, by May Chartouni-Dubarry The ups and downs of the Israel-Palestine peace process have made way for a non-conventional war that is all too real: this about-turn can be explained by Israel's political radicalisation (Ariel Sharon's nationalism and the fight against terrorism sanctioned by the 11 September attacks) and Yassir Arafat's loss of international prestige (suicide bombings and fractures in the Palestinian Authority). In order to respond to new American demands, Arafat has to eut himself off from a society that believes that a war of attrition is the only response to occupation, and undertake democratie reforms of the Authority — imposed as a necessary condition to the restart of peace negotiations. Apart from an even more bloody conflict taking hold, the present impasse is a threat to the stability of the entire region, with no improvement in sight.

The Difficulty of Lowering Expectations: From the Near-Peace of Oslo to a Complete Breakdown, by Marius Schattner Nine years after the Oslo Agreements, promises of peace have a bitter after-taste. Israelis and Palestinians are caught in a morbid treadmill of attacks and reprisals, suicide operations and "targeted assassinations". The West Bank is in effect totally reoccupied and the risks taken for peace have been in vain. The idea that the peace process is dead and buried is preponderant: deceased in July 2000 at Camp David, when the two parties confronted the fundamental issues for the first time, buried afterwards by the Sharon government. The failure is for ail to see. It is possible to debate the causes - to ponder what happened at Camp David. But beyond these interrogations, the question of interpretation arises: the lessons for the two parties on what has oeen called a "tragedy of errors". This paper tries to show how the most radical interprétation of the failure has taken root in Israel, why this has happened, and looks at the consequences.

The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict - Back to the Future, by Hamad Khalidi The opening declarations of Ehud Barak and the US orchestration of peace talks in the summer of 2000 raised great hopes for the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Camp David signiried the possibility of a compromise that would have been in Une with the previous agreements (Oslo). But Yassir Arafat's refusal to accept an Israeli offer that was ambiguous resul-ted in his losing legitimacy as a partner for peace, whereas a bare provocation (Ariel Sharon's visit to the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif) exacerbated the religious element of the conflict and sparked off the Second Intifada, which resulted in many more casualties than the first. Since then the continuing colonisation of the Occupied Territories and the radicalisation of the two camps mean that the peace process has been taken hostage: if Israel and the United States believe that the recognition of a Palestinian state is contingent on Arafat's departure and the democratisation of the Palestinian Authority, Sharon's policies could well bring the conflict back to what it was in 1948 — an existential war for the land of Palestine.

U.S. Policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute, by Jerrold D. Green The administration of Président George W. Bush entered office with a decided disinclination toward high level engagement in Arab-Israeli peacemaking. This decision was undoubtedly influenced by the repeated railure of Bush's predecessor, President Bill Clinton, to make a lasting contribution to resolving this enduring and bitter conflict. As is often the case in the Middle East, the situation in the region soon became so volatile that the White House felt compelled to act. Under significant pressure from concerned groups in the United States, Europe, and the Middle East itself, Bush explored various options for ameliorating this escalating conflict. This culminated in his controversial speech of June 2002. In this speech Bush acknowledged the desirability of creating a Palestinian state while at the same time expressing an officiai U.S. view that Yassir Arafat was no longer a reliable negotiating partner and that Washington no longer wished to deal with him.

A Europe of States versus a Federal Europe, by Robert Toulemon The Convention on the future of the European Union will try to establish a broad coalition of support for its proposals to have the best chance of them being accepted by the 2004 intergovernmental conférence. Rather than coming up with a compromise that would maintain the present division of the EU between the community pillars and the intergovernmental pillars, it would be desirable if the members of the convention were to synthesise the two approaches, which should complement, not compete with, each other. It is necessary to balance the attachment of each state to its sovereignty, a désire to be directly linked to the definition and putting in place of the EU's policies, on the one hand, with the need to abolish the veto in an enlarged Europe, to bring Europe closer to its citizens, and to assure internal and external openness, on the other. By progressively enlarging the areas of competence or the EU through a well-adapted and flexible process, especially taking into account the diversity of expectations and the capabilities of present and future members, it might be possible to corne up with a satisfactory proposal.

National Minorities in Europe and the Defence of Human Rights -A Challenge for EU Enlargement, by Sabine Riedel In the discussion about the protection of minorities in Eastern Europe, measures of positive discrimination are frequently recommended, such as a separate educational System and minority representation in parliament and administration. However, as this article tries to prove, such measures lead to a destruction of multiethnic societies and linguistic segregation, thus giving up chances for an integration of minorities. The result is an increase of inter-ethnic tensions instead of their solution. The study recommends to give up the search for new collective rights and to implement the general prohibition of discrimination in international documents and in the European Convention on Human Rights.

The Spread of Anti-Europeanism in Central Europe, by Georges Mink and Laure Neumayer Among the countries of Central Europe, and particularly in Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic, the prospect of joining the European Union crystallises partisan battles in the various political arenas. The arrivai on the scene of those who prefer their country to stand back, who promote a revived national identity, is in opposition to those former dissidents, now in power, who in favour of enlargement. The new arrivals fuel anti-democratic sentiment and manipulate symbols of national history for anti-European radicalisation (the Sudeten question, the location of memorial to displaced persons, the spectre of Western colonialism coming with the EU). When the present calendar of European construction is added to the equation (free movement of workers and capital, financial issues, etc.), which is hardly likely to please public opinion in these countries, it can be asked whether the opinion polls on membership, which are still favourable, take fully into account the present unease.

Ukraine, Byelorussia and Moldavia - Caught between an Enlarged EU and Russia, by Catherine Guicherd With the enlargement of the EU and the development of relations with Russia, cornes the need for Brussels to decide on a coherent policy with regard to the Ukraine, Byelorussia, and Moldavia. This policy must be tailored to each country, taking into account the political and ideological orientations and the geo-strategic situation of each. It must also comprise a regional strategy that matches the need to intensify cross-border contacts to the East and the obligation to think of the future of these countries in the context of evolving EU-Russia relations.

Problems and Perspectives of German-Russian Economie Relations, by Roland Götz and Christian Meier The key areas of German-Russian economie relations are considered in detail. Tables and diagrams show the leading position of Germany in Russia's foreign trade and concerning inward foreign investment just as Russia's rela- lively modest position in Germany's import and export. The importance and limitations of Hermes export credit guarantees for German exports to Russia are discussed. Examples of successful and non-successful economic co-operation between Russia and Germany are given. German technical assistance to Russia (the TRANSFORM-Program) and some remarks at the future settlement of old Soviet debts conclude the analysis.

The South Caucasus - The High Stakes of Regional Co-operation, by Gaïdz Minassian Regional co-operation between the three states of the South Caucasus -Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia — has become firmly established in the region in spite of some high-casualty wars - be they on-going or under cease-fire (Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Upper Karabakh, Chechnya) — and several nation-state crises following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Some ten years after achieving their independence, the three countries, which are members of the main international organisations, must nevertheless over-come the structural difficulties of democratie transition and address the challenges of world economie realities. This paper is an overview of the principal themes of regional co-operation: opening-up to the West, reinforcing secu-rity, and fortifying democracy at a time when Russia and the United States are collaborating closely in the fight against terrorism.

Iran and Reform: A Turning Point, by Frédéric Tellier The modernisation process in the Islamic Republic is taking a holiday. The reforms undertaken by President Khatami, wno was re-elected in 2001, have been impeded by the reallocation of centres of power to the benefit of the Supreme Guide, and new, two-headed regime, suffering from inertia, has de facto come into being. In the midst of economic difficulties (debt and pauperisation) and social crisis (a break between the state and society), there is real desire on the part of society to bring about a secular state supported by a new religious exegesis that criticises the present theocratic power whose authority was derived from a revolution in the name of popular sovereignty. But even if this third force, which supports a legally constituted state, is recognised in parliament, it will have no influence on the Iranian political scene unless it receives recognition from the international community, starting with the United States.

A Reflection on Sectarian Fighting in the North of Nigeria, by Ousmane Kane Communal violence has been a notable feature of the Nigerian public sphère during the last two decades. It has resulted in the killing of thousands of people and the looting of millions of dollars worth of property. The author argues that religious riots need to be situated within the struggle for political power and control of resources. This struggle, according to him, has been focused during the last two decades on the debate over secularism. The paper analyses four major moments of this debate: the debate on the Constituent Assembly of the Second Republic, the OIC crisis, the debate on the Constituent Assembly of the Third Republic and the implementation of Muslim criminal law in twelve states of Northern Nigeria. In conclusion, the author offers an analytical framework for understanding the politics of religious violence in Nigeria.

The Russia-Ukraine Relationship - Empire or Democracy?, by Annie Daubenton The breaking up of the Soviet Union was thought to have severed the links forged by history between Russia and the Ukraine. Ukraine stated its new found independence within the CIS, rivalling Russia and banking on an equilibrium of East-West influences to assure its democratie transition. But Ukraine's economie liabilities, inherited from the dislocation of the empire (foreign debt, disputes over energy resources...), and a serious political crisis in 2000 hâve brought the two countries together, destabilising the equilibrium to Moscow's benefit and leading to retreats on reform. At the same time, Moscow's fight against "terrorism" in Chechnya is now seen in the context of international preoccupations (11 September) and has brought about the NATO-Russia agreement (2002), which seems to relegate the Ukraine to a secondary role on the international scene.