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Introduction: Strategy Revisited, by Dominique David The twofold dynamics of globalization and fragmentation radically changes the way states devise their strategies in the contemporary world. The new complexity of conflicts challenges the great powers' ability to think global and to regulate the international system: collective intervention is on the décline. Besides, the military apparatus looks inadequate in the face of entirely new premises. Military reforms occasionally take place, but their conceptions are by and large obsolete. Now it is time for a full aggiornamento of our strategie thinking.

The End of Geopolitics ? Géographie Reflections on the Powers' Conventions, by Michel Foucher The analysis of the interaction between territories and political power needs a fresh look at the threshold of the coming century. Traditional geopolitics — dedicated to the analysis of rivalries on closed territories — is no longer sufficient to address the new interactions taking place between open states and societies. Economie globalization impacts on territories — by introducing a new hierarchy of states and regions — but geo-economies doesn 't offer a comprehensive view of the contemporary world. What is at stake is to conceive a viable organisation of the world political space, an active and constructive geography, a task which even the US is no longer able to achieve by itself The European experiment, described so far as an attempt to build up an organized system of open and democratie states, could become, through a joint effort, a « co-operative power » able to produce the effects of power (a combination of might and influence). If successful, it could set a valuable precedent for shaping the new international relations toward a more « civilised » globalization.

Will War Survive the 20th Century ?, by Jean-Louis Dufour Notwithstanding the persistence of inter-state disputes, States are waging war on each other less often. The trend — which has been evident since the end of the GulfWar— is due to various factors. These include technological inequality, the economy that has now become a relevant symbol of power, the end of the Cold War, the prohibition on waging war and the progress of democracy. But the rarer occurrence of conventional wars by no means prevents the development of internal conflicts that take degenerate forms. The objective is not so much State power as enrichment of armed gangs. Faced with the potential increase in the number of anarchical disputes due to the break-up of States, the international community has to develop the means to restore peace, ad hoc doctrines, suitable and possibly non-lethal weapons and international armed forces worthy of the name.

The Trials and Tribulations of US Strategie Thinking, by Etienne de Durand The Clinton administration's strategie doctrine of engagement and enlargement and the Bottom-up Review, while cautions and derived from the experiences of post-Cold War crises, make up a temporary compromise and have corne under heavy criticism from both académie and strategie circles. These controversial debates illustrate the interrogations that beset the ivorld first military power, now deprived, since the collapse of the USSR, both of its Enemy and of the very basis ofits strategy. This does not, however, rule out the emergence among scholars of specifie consensus on a number of strategie issues : from the definition of objectives for a US Grand Strategy and the integration of technical advances into military doctrine (following the « Revolution in Military Affairs » school of thought) to the way of conducting peace operations. Only a major crisis would be likely to turn these theoretical convergences into an official doctrine.

Tbe Russian defense System will be able to survive only at the expense of a radical reform, the political conditions for which have yet to be created. The country's size and complexity make the task difficult. It will be a long time before the emerging civilian society takes root ; democracy and the market economy will be established with difficulty. Russia may fail to extricate itself from this infernal trap. However, it is likely that she will adjust to the new realities. And if Russian foreign policy wears itself out for much longer by trying to match ambitions and resources, it will have to corne up with some new concepts. Geoeconomics will prevail over geostrategy.

French Military Reform : a Change of Identity, by Jean-François Bureau Since the end of the cold war France has entered a full-fledged reappraisal of her defense doctrine and organization. The « deterring manœuvre » has ceased to be the core of her strategy, a new priority being confered on limited military opérations, most of them with the allies : in Europe, the significance of the « French exceptionalism » is no longer the same. After the Gulf war, the constitution of mobile, flexible and multipurpose forces has received more attention ; their interservices dimension still needs to be enhanced. Under pressure from past financial commitments, decisions taken in 1995 illustrate the difficulty to adjust ends and means. The end of draft leads to a new model for armed forces with a strong reduction in size, whereas the eut in of defense expenditure creates a lasting constraint that is bound to require different relations between decision-makers. The culture and « specificity » of the military institution are jeopardized. France is changing her usual relations with military might.

A New Strategy for Intelligence ?, by Pierre Lacoste Intelligence is at the heart of the cultural revolution that is shaking the world in transition between the pseudo-balances of bipolarity and the as yet-uncertain structures that will prevail in the 21st century. But the legacy of the Cold War is causing problems everywhere. Most States are wondering how the secret services will develop and about new ways of managing them. The United States, strengthened by its victory over the Soviet Union, is vigorously pursuing a policy aimed at reinforcing its position of hegemony. That country is demonstrating a first application of what could be called the « new era of intelligence ». But intelligence strategies have to be seen in a new context : that of the « two worlds ». One — official — world is that of sovereign States ; the other is that of recognized or clandestine multinational organizations whose intentions are often licit but sometimes criminal. Now intelligence must remain an exclusive power of states based on the rule of law, serving their national interests.

Strategy and Disarmament : the Chances of a Cooperative Security Policy, by Jean Klein Since the end of the First World War disarmament has entered the diplomatie arena and has been a subject of constant debate for the great powers. However, the failure of collective security under the auspices of the League of Nations and the East-West antagonism caused by the great rift that followed the Second World War set narrow limits to this undertaking. Although the mastery of wea-pons made it possible to stabilize the balance on which reciprocal deterrence between the two nuclear powers was based, disarmament proper began only towards the end of the 1980s. With the disappearance of the bipolar order and the emergence of a new security System in Europe and the world, disarmament is set to become a major component of a peace policy based on sufficiency of resources and transparency of military activities.

Towards a Conflict Prévention Strategy ?, by Maurice Bertrand There are two conceptions of conflict prevention : « préventive diplomacy » (influencing the players in an about-to-erupt conflict) and influencing pre-conflict situations that are diagnosed in good time. Short-term prévention has yielded only poor results. Long-term prevention of internal conflicts is not practised today. In this regard there is no intellectual framework nor political will nor institutional machinery that could legitimate it. But a change of ideas is under way that involves a considerable effort to gather information, analyze causes, question foreign policies and change ideas about the institutional status and possible role of civilian society.

Expansion of NATO : a European Responsibility, by Nicole Gnesotto If the object of expanding NATO is genuine pan-European re conciliation with yesterday's old enemies, the process is obviously desirable, necessary and even indispensable, despite all the risks inherent in such an opening-up. If on the other hand, the aim is to perpetuate existing advantages, in other words, simply to codify the American domination that is unchallenged at the end of the Cold War, then reservations become more legitimate. Europeans have a key responsibility in deciding the final direction taken by this process. The debates on the expansion of NATO are in fact merely the expression of a fundamental choice : will Europe's political order be best guaranteed, on the eve of the third millennium, by being based solely on the political framework of the Atlantic Alliance, or by taking the form of a new geopolitical triangle based on relatively egalitarian cooperation between three autonomous and cooperative decision-making poles : the Alliance, Russia and the European Union ?

European Monetary Union and International Monetary Coopération, by Barry Eichengreen and Fabio Ghironi We describe the opportunities and perils for international monetary cooperation associated with EMU. While institutional and intellectual support for monetary-policy coordination within Europe will be strengthened by EMU, a limitation of the Maastricht Treaty framework concerns relations between the « ins » and the « outs » — between member states that will and that will not be founding members of the monetary union. While this problem can be remedied, it presently looms as the principal threat to monetary cohesion in Europe and to the broader program of economie and political integration with which EMU is linked. By comparison, institutional and intellectual support for transatlantic monetary coopération, and for G7 monetary cooperation more generally, remains deficient. The advent of Stage III will only highlight these limitations.

The Future of the Lome Convention, by Paul Collier, Patrick Guillaumont, Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney and Jan Willem Gunning This paper suggests a number of reforms in the cooperation between the European Union and African countries as the 4th Lome Convention ends in the year 2000. The starting point is a diagnosis of the marginalization of Africa that underlines the risks perceived by investors. The proposais specifically address European aid, including conditionality, market access in the EU, and various forms of institutional coopération, notably in the monetary and legal fields.