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Peacekeeping: New Challenges for the UNO and the Security Council, by Jean-Marie GUÉHENNO As crises unfold in Africa and Asia, the international community's reactions range from robust intervention to mere indifférence. However, robust intervention is associated with the deployment of troops from the North under the flag of NATO or coalitions of the willing, while the establishment of UN peacekeeping operations, primarily with troops from the South, falls one step short of indifference. Despite relatively scarce resources, UN peacekeeping underwent a dramatic reform and has achieved many successes over the last few years. Security Council Member States have a special responsibility in lending their support and providing UN peacekeeping with the highly qualified troops and spécialised! assets it requires: this is essential in order to confront the new challenges in failed States. French Operation Licorne in Côte d'Ivoire and EU Operation Artemis in the Congo are good examples of North countries' renewed involvement in Africa. But there would be advantages in envisaging future deployments under the Blue Helmet, as a testimony of increased solidarity with the South, as a way of assisting the Security Council in being more united in action.

Reinventing the West, by Dominique MOÏSI The divisions between Europe and America, as well as within Europe itself, took a turn in 2003 which bodes ill for the future, both in terms of the future of transatlantic relations and in terms of world stability and security. Perspectives for the world will not be improved if Europe unites against the United States or if the latter turns away from the Old Continent. The world would on the contrary be a more dangerous place. It is thus urgent to reinvent the West, a united and renewed West, aware of the differences within it as well as of the common values it holds. This West must show the rest of the world that it can act in a positive fashion with concrete results in order to improve the situation, in particular with regard to the regions most torn apart by war and poverty as is the case in the Middle East and Africa.

Gulliver on Trial: The Iraq War and its Domestic Fallout in the U.S., by John G. MASON September 2003 has marked the "low point" of the Président Bush's first term. The quick military triumph over the Baathist Regime last spring has proved to be his undoing at home as well as abroad. Bush and the Neo-Conservative faction that came to power with him gambled the success of his presidency and his chance for re-election on quick and decisive victories in his war against terrorism. They took these risks in the hope that military victory would transform the post war international System and break down domestic constraints on the proactive use of American military power. Now it seems that in both the Iraq and Afghan theatres, the war looks like a draw, if not an outright loss. Overseas, the conquest of Baghdad has proved to be the rock that nearly wrecked the Premier-ship of Tony Blair and may yet break the Transatlantic partnership that has united America and Europe for 50 years. At home, the "war after the war" has broken apart the bipartisan patriotic front that emerged following the attacks on New York and Washington. The future of the Neo-Cons revolution in diplomacy is now in doubt along with bush's chances for reelection.

Perspectives for a New Régional Order in the Middle East, by Volker PERTHES Even though its political and psycological effects on the societies of the Middle East have yet to become clear, the Iraq war has had a major impact on the geopolitical setting in the region. Its repercussions on the domestic and international politics of the states in the Middle East are contingent, though. The main determinants for whether or not a new regional order and a trend towards political liberalisation in Arab states are to be expected, are the success or failure of the U.S. to both stabilise Iraq and establish an acceptable political order in that country, as well as the development of the Arab-Israeli conflict and peace-process. Europe has an interest in furthering the stabilisation of Iraq. To achieve that, the political context there has to change - from a state of occupation to a state of internationally supervised reconstruction. Above that, Europe needs to develop its own agenda for change in the Near and Middle Eastern neighbourhood.

Arab Regimes' Dilemmas after the American Intervention in Iraq, by Philippe DROZ-VINCENT Throughout the year 2003, the Arab world found itself at the centre of the preoccupations of the American "hyper power" and of an American administration keen to deploy its might in order to defend the "national interests" of the country. The year 2002 had shown that American thinking relative to the future of the Arab world had already been intense and that suspicion extended beyond the matter of Iraq to reach even the traditional allies of the Americans, over the concepts of transformation (or of democratisation) of the region. Arab political regimes have indeed been criticised over the past two years not only for their authoritarianism, but more especially for their share of responsibility in the rise of anti-Americanism, a phenomenon which would have permitted the terrorist attacks. These regimes are at the same time confronted with their own societies, which are reacting to regional events by blaming the carelessness and cowardice of their leaders.

After Saddam: Hopes and Uncertainties in Iran, by Mohammad-Reza DJALILI The consequences of the American intervention in Iraq are extremely paradoxical for Iran. On the one hand, the country that was described as being part of the "Axis of Evil" by George W. Bush in January 2002 found itself completely encircled by U.S. forces now based in Afghanistan, the Persian Gulf, Georgia and Turkey. On the other hand, the United States deposed one of their worst enemies: Saddam Hussein. The situation is even more astounding when considering the opportunities available to Teheran in the aftermath of the overthrow of the Baathist regime in Iraq, opportunities that the Islamic regime is eager to exploit. In fact, when considering the strong relations between the Shia clergy of Iran and Iraq, Teheran is believed to play an important role in the post-Saddam Iraq. At the same time, Shiism will play a greater political role in Iraq than previously, however, paradoxically without being inspired by the Iranian model. The concern for pragmatism of the Iraqi politico-religious leaders and the tendency of major Shia centres in Iraq to adhere to a less political approach to religion may at one point create new problems for the Iranian theocracy.

A Dangerous Triangle: India-Pakistan-Afghanistan, by Gilbert ETIENNE The India-Pakistan-Afghanistan triangle has found itself, since the attacks of 9/11 and the launching by Washington of the "long war against terrorism", at the heart of the new world disorder. The changing and contradictory relationship between India and Pakistan, the ambiguous relations which link the latter to today's Afghanistan, as well as the apparently very friendly relations between New Delhi and Kabul: all of these elements form the background over which different factors of instability are intertwined, whether these relate to religious fundamentalist movements, desperate economie difficulties or the trafficking of much coveted opium and heroine. The increasing weight of the United States in Central Asia and in the Middle East, in par-ticular since the intervention in Iraq, add to the instability or at least to the political tensions which riddle a region in which Iran, Russia and China have not given up on their desire to exert their influence as well.

Is there a Risk of Global Déflation?, by Patrick ARTUS In this text, we analyse the risk of the apparition of a deflationary dynamics in Europe. Déflation must first be defined: in modem economies, it consists mostly in a reduction in inflation, to the point where real interest rates start increasing, worsen-ing the situation of borrowers and slowing down investment. This type of dynamics appears, like in Japan in the 1990's, after an adverse shock, when monetary policy reacts too slowly in the presence of excess capacity or of dis-adjustments of exchange rates. One can currently observe a situation of world-wide excess capacity in manufacturing, the under-evaluation of Asian currencies (specially the Chinese), but monetary policy has everywhere become expansionary. The large increase in the supply of liquidity by central banks does not lead to an increase in the prices of goods, but to an increase in asset prices.

The Oil Markets in 2003: Myth and Reality of the U.S. Hegemony, by Michel CHATELUS This paper intends to examine what are the consequences of the Iraqi war and the military occupation of Iraq by the "coalition forces" on the oil markets at the end of the summer 2003. So far, continuity prevails over the premises of radical changes in the geopolitics of oil as announced in the "war for oil" theory. Oil prices remain high, the return of Iraq as a major producer is delayed and will be very costly, the Iraqi resources are not reserved to American firms, OPEC is still influent, and the special links between Saudi Arabia and the United States are challenged but not eut. Russia is a great beneficiary of the present situation. We are far from the building of the foundations of a securised Middle East fully integrated in an open oil market free of political interference. The short term outlook for a radical change is more one of increased instability and menace to oil supply by uncontrolled forces.

Globalisation: The Era of Refusal, by Eddy FOUGIER The 9/11 terrorist attack didn't break the anti-globalisation movement's momentum contrary to expectations, even if it had to fit these new circumstances. The movement is a revolutionary one but in a new way. Its aim is not to seize the power. It is to counter the neo-liberal hegemony in order to enforce an "another world". This "global justice movement" is sustainable because it is in a way summary of different trends ― a society's counter-movement, a neo-protectionism, a "neo-Third-Worldism", new social movements and a new anti-Americanism ― and a response to three big crisis ― left wing, democratic and globalisation's one. However, uncertainty is the characteristic of the future of the movement, due to the big challenges it has to take up and to its difficulties to define and implement an alternative.

Islamic Violence and International Terrorism Networks, by Alain CHOUET The outrageousness of the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington has focused political leaders, security services and média on a very peculiar form of violence appeared in connection with the Muslim world. Beyond the Al Qaeda issue, that lost mot of its interest since the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, this focus has very much masked the fact that terrorism and political violence in the Muslim and Arabie world are not only very active still, but dépend also on policies and strategies both at the local and regional level, that do not reflect at ail a clash of civilisations. Those who misunderstand that phenomenon are truly playing into Bin Laden's hands, weakening the antiterrorist war and feeding the cycle of violence.

The Terrorist Activity of Islamic Networks, by François LÉGARÉ For just over a décade, the world has witnessed the growth of Islamic terrorist activity. How do we characterize it and where is it leading? Following and centered upon the 9/11 attacks, has the call to Jihad by Al Qaeda been adopted by most radical Muslims? To answer thèse questions we must identify the patterns of Islamic terrorist network activity, understand what fuels it and identify what the most recent attacks portend for the future. Analysis shows that Al Qaeda's call to Jihad has been heard - the number of attacks has risen and the most violent ones focus on Western targets. Nevertheless, antiterrorist activity seems to have diminished the capacity of the Islamic terrorists to stage complex opérations like those of 9/11. In particular, Al-Qaeda remains weakened. But the most disturbing feature of these terrorist networks is the effect of their activity on the Muslim world as a whole. They now benefit from sizeable ideological, financial and logistic support, and we must not forget that they are much better aligned with the opinion of their own public than is the US.

Throughout the passing centuries, states have been periodically forced to adapt their sanitary services in order to be able to deal with recurrent waves of epidemies. The progress achieved in the fields of hygiene, vaccination and antibiotics between 1850 and 1950 prompted the belief that these infections had been permanently vanquished. However, the irruption of emerging or re-emerging diseases, resistance to antibiotics, Aids and SRAS, as well as the bio-terrorist threat, have led us back towards a more modest appraisal of our capacity to control the intrinsic ability of the living world to evolve. In order to deal with this situation, the European Union will equip itself with the coordinated capacities of alert and control which it previously lacked. The final organisation of this new agency, its size and mandate are an object of debate, the out-come of which will détermine to an important extent the sanitary security of our continent in the years to corne.

The Role and Future of the United Nations after the Iraqi Crisis, by Alexandra NOVOSSELOFF History will tell whether the Iraqi crisis will have constituted a challenging of the United Nations Organisation (UNO), of its rôle and of its use within the international System. Indeed, the UNO has proven both its resistance to events and its capacity to last as a foundation of the international System. However, due to the unilateralist practices of some of its member states and as a result of a System which is strugghng with the idea of in-depth reform, the question of its legitimacy and of its authority has been debated openly if not brutally, throughout this last year. In spite of this, it is however not certain that the time for in-depth reform of ail aspects of the United Nations System has arrived.

Which Geopolitical Rôle for an Enlarged Europe?, by Maxime LEFEBVRE European foreign policy is truly paradoxical: on the one hand, Europeans are able to disagree on fundamental issues such as the relationship with the U.S. and the neces-sity -or not— of a military action in Iraq; on the other hand, they equip themselves with more and more sophisticated instruments so that they can speak with one voice and act together. Europe as an economie power is an equal to the U.S., but it is weakened by the lack of growth, the inadequacy of military capabilities, and political divisions. In order to play a major rple on the international stage, it must better define its values and interests, and include them into a geopolitical vision. The E.U. might not become a political and military power like the U.S., which would emerge as a separate or even rival pole. But it must answer three key questions: How far should it go on the way of enlargement? How far should it support the U.S. in its crusade against "rogue states"? How far should it develop its own military power?

The Convention, a Constituting Moment for Europe?, by Thierry CHOPIN The Convention on the future of Europe has submitted a treaty proposal creating a Constitution for Europe to the heads of state and governments of the EU's member countries. In spite of the semantic hitches (should one refer to a treaty, a Constitution, a constitutional treaty?), this project organises power within the Union through the structuring of institutions (even though the question of the separation of powers remains unresolved) while outlining a sharing of compétence between the Union and the states, together with a mechanism to oversee the principle of subsidiarity. However, the text of the Convention does not place Europe on the path towards a fundamental union of states, i.e. a political federation, as has been underlined with the inability of Europeans to agree on questions of war and peace, and to develop a common foreign policy. In fine, it is the very question of the European identity which is at stake.

Beyond Appearances or the Slow Progress of ESPD, by Jolyon HOWORTH Three challenges faced the EU's security and defence ambitions in the wake of the 2003 Iraq War: consolidation of the security zone around its emerging borders; re-forging its own internal unity in light of the Transatlantic crisis; and tailoring its military capacity to the new threats of the 21st century. Despite numerous stabilisation initiatives directed at its Balkan, Mediterranean, South Eastern and Eastern neighbours, and the elaboration of a major Neighbourhood Policy document, much work still needed to be done to address the fundamental problem of reconciling cooperation with exclusion. The Franco-British meltdown over Iraq, which had allowed the US to corral EU member states into "old" and "new" European camps, threatened at first to deepen internal European rifts. Such an outcome was avoided late in 2003 when the UK, Germany and France re-prioritised the requirements of a viable and united ESDP. On the third challenge, the EU succeeded in its first ever military missions under an EU flag. But it failed to address the issue of how to reconcile the military requirements of peace-keeping operations with those of the war on terror.

Germany between National Affirmation and Multilateral Rooting, by Hans STARK The crisis in Iraq not only weakened the main pillars of the after-1945 global order, it also underlined the changes in the German foreign policy since Schroeder became chancellor. For the first time since 1949, the fédéral government has renounced to its traditionally equal relations with Paris and Washington, which led to the outburst of an unprecedented crisis in the relations between Germany and the United States. This crisis underlines the way Germany asserts itself on the international stage and is in stark contrast to the position of Schroeder's predecessors. If it does not question the numerous engagements of the Federal Republic in the world, nor its alliance with the U.S., it still reflects the new attitude of Germany, which now defends its national interests and acts as a European power, with European positions.

Do Europeans Exist?, by Claire DEMESMAY While Europe has long been an economie, juridical and institutional matter, the year 2003 (and especially the work of the Convention on the future of Europe and the debates about the plan for a future Constitution) raised the question of its human basis, at the same time clouding further reflection about this issue. At first sight, national peculiarities are so obvious that it appears difficult to identify the Europeans and to define a European identity. However, even though they are discrète, some common tendencies can be seen in mentalities and behaviours. But will it be enough to found a coherent political project with which the Europeans could identify? The question remains, especially before the EU opening to ten new countries, most of them from the East.

Vladimir Putin or the Pitfalls of Russian Foreign Policy, by Thomas GOMART Ever since his accession to power, Vladimir Putin has been pursuing a double objective: to promote Russia's economie development in order to affirm its independence, and to multiply diplomatie activity so as to become a highly sought partner and gain weight on the international scene. In order to achieve this, he has placed foreign policy at the heart of his agenda and tried to reorganise the process of policy-making. In a break with the self-defining isolation practised by his predecessor, he is thus leading a skill-full diplomacy in which economie interests merge with security challenges, while opting for multilateral dialogue in order to make his country's voice heard. Finally, the fight against international terrorism stands in addition to the "economisation" of Russian foreign policy and further facilitates the integration of the country in a kind of militarised globalisation.

The Return of Religion in International Politics, by Henri MADELIN Throughout the year 2003, new types of cards have been dealt out in the image of Cesar and God, in Europe, even more so in the United States and, pointedly, in Muslim countries. The three points of crystallisation of conflicts with religion as a powerful underlying élément were Afghanistan with the dispersion of the Talibans, the Near East with a road map put back onto the agenda by G.W. Bush between Israelis and Palestinians, and Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein and the growing difficulties encountered by the Anglo-American forces of occupation. The spectres of Holy War, Jihad and of the concept of just war could be seen to re-emerge. The Pope and the diplomatie action of the Holy See played a substantial rôle throughout this period. However, one may wonder how corne the images of the Christian God of the Americans differ somewhat from those of the Western Europeans.

2003 in History: "Turning Point" or "Continuity"? by Pierre GROSSER This contribution raises the question of the significance of 2003 as the possible end of an historical period. Does it mark the end of the period ushered in by the 11th of September? Or the real end of the post Cold War era? Or the end indeed of that part of the post-1945 world masked by the confrontation between the East and the West (the establishment of the System based on the United Nations, the emergence of the Trans-Atlantic partnership, the pursuit of the de-colonisation, etc)? It also examines whether the behaviour of the United States in 2003 is part of a longer history, or whether we are not witnessing a sort of revolution in its foreign policy.

Nothing Will ever Be as it Used to, or Watersheds and International Order, by Philippe MOREAU DEFARGES An historic watershed can be defined as the springing up of uncertainty in the flow of time. What was natural, everlasting, becomes precarious and debatable. What makes watersheds so uneasy to be grappled with is their unstable mixing up of objectivity and subjectivity. Three recent examples help to understand the dynamic ambiguities of watershed. 1898-1991, closing the break of 1914, and promising the universal spread of democracy and peace, becomes much more ambivalent all along the 1990s, pushing forward the frustrations of globalisation. September 11th 2001, has stimulated so many millenarian commentaries. What has been so violently stressed by this tragedy is the maturing of global rebellions or delinquencies, globalisation multiplying comparisons and envy between societies groups and individuals, and supplying huge resources (money men weapons...)to any entrepreneurial person. In 2003, the Iraq War has been initiated to create a watershed in the Middle East, but will it succeed to break decades or centuries of humiliation and bitterness?